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Copper finds support

The London Metal Exchange copper price retreated on Monday December 30 after hitting a four-month high last week but positive global macroeconomic data checked any significant falls.

At 02:15 London time, three-month copper was down $13 per tonne from its opening to trade at $7,368 per tonne. The eurozone consumer confidence improved in December to -13.6, the best reading since July 2011 while the GfK consumer confidence in Germany reached 7.6 in January, the highest since August 2007....

Silver lining to China-Russia trade clouds

China-Russia trade has downshifted, rising only 0.5 percent so far in 2013, and concern is growing that trade for the whole year might not grow at all from 2012.
With December's data not due till January, a sharp slowdown of bilateral trade this year is almost certain.

China-Russia trade value in Jan.-Nov. stood at 81 billion U.S. dollars, up 0.5 percent. The growth rate is more than 10 percentage points down on a year ago, according to China's general customs administration.

During the period, exports to Russia reached 44.56 billion U.S. dollars, up 11.3 percent while Russian exports to China stood at 36.52 billion U.S. dollars, down 10.1 percent.

"The global economic situation is the major cause of the slowdown," said Li Jianmin, a researcher on Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

External factors began to effect what was 88.2 billion U.S. dollars of trade in 2012, a record year. Growth that year of 11.2 percent, however was far below the dizzy heights of 42.7 percent and 43.1 percent in 2011 and 2010. The first half of 2013, saw the first contraction of trade since the global financial crisis in 2008, down 1.2 percent. Things have picked up slightly since.

Fundamental Analysis

Silver took a major fall today giving up 439 points or 2.19% to trade at 19.61 taking cue from gold along with a selloff in silver holding by iShares the largest silver ETF in the world.

Lower inventory levels send oil up above US$100

Crude-oil futures finished above US$100 a barrel on Friday after government data showed a greater-than-expected drop in inventory levels in the past week.

Crude for February delivery rose 0.8% to finish at US$100.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, for a 1% gain on the week.

On the other hand, gasoline for January delivery dropped by less than a penny to settle at just under US$2.82 a gallon after trading higher for most of the day.

Market outlook

Although silver has gained price but more or less it has happened because of bottom out hype created by bulls in market otherwise no real reason behind this price rigging only if it gives closing above ₹46k then upside trend can happen

China Seeks Comments on Revisions to Foreign Investment Laws

China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) is mulling over revising the country’s foreign #investment laws and is currently soliciting comments

Indian Rupee Falls

Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar in morning deals on Thursday.

The rupee fell to a 2-day low of 61.915 against the greenback. Further weakness could help the rupee to find support at the 62.6 area.

Russia Central Bank

The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to scale back economic stimulus won't have a big effect on Russia's financial system."We do not foresee any significant effect or risks, and there is no need to factor (the tapering) into our monetary policy," Kseniya Yudayeva

Emerging-market currencies dropped in the days after the announcement. Stock markets in Brazil, Indonesia and other emerging economies also slumped. Ms. Yudayeva said the ruble exchange rate won't be affected much. Capital outflow from Russia is driven by internal factors and likely won't increase considerably, she said.

She said the bank has no plans to support the Russia currency and that its stress tests show the financial system can withstand external shocks from the tapering.

Rmseed downtrend

  Rmseed calendar spread between current & far month contract has risen from discount of ₹160 to ₹170 which signalled downtrend 

Gold downtrend

#Gold far month contract is nearly trading at discount of ₹650 which is not a good sign caution for buyers

Gold Sinks Below $1,200

The price of gold slumped below $1,200 an ounce Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve said it would pull back on its stimulus program.

Gold went as high as $1,900 an ounce in August 2011 partly because traders feared that the Fed’s efforts to support the U.S. economy with easy money policies would cause inflation. That never happened.

The price of silver also fell sharply. The March contract fell 87.3 cents, or 4.4 percent, to $19.186 an ounce.

High-grade copper for March delivery fell 2 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $3.2955 a pound. March palladium fell $3.15, or 0.5 percent, to $693.30 an ounce and January platinum fell $24.30, or 1.8 percent, to $1,318.40 an ounce.

In other trading, crude oil rose 97 cents, or 1 percent, to $98.77 a barrel.

Wholesale gasoline futures rose 4 cents to $2.74 a gallon and heating rose 2 cents to $3.03 a gallon. Natural gas rose 21 cents to $4.46 per 1,000 cubic feet.

FED ANNOUNCES IT WILL BEGIN DRAWDOWN OF QUANTITATIVE EASING

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday sent its strongest signal of confidence in the U.S. economy since the Great Recession, deciding that the nation’s economic prospects are finally bright enough to withstand a slight pullback in stimulus spending

Yet the Fed also made clear that it will keep supporting an economy that remains less than fully healthy. It will continue to keep interest rates low and try to boost unusually low inflation, which can be a drag on spending and borrowing

In a statement after a two-day policy meeting, the Fed said it would trim its $85 billion a month in bond purchases by $10 billion starting in January. Bernanke said the bank expects to make “similar moderate” cuts in its purchases if economic gains continue

Immediately after the Fed said it would reduce the pace of monthly asset purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion, #gold prices fell from their Comex settlement price then recovered to trade a bit higher

The bond-buying program, also known as quantitative easing, has been a supportive factor for gold prices so some analysts expected that a decision to taper the program would pressure gold prices

US Dollar Weakens Against Most Majors

The US dollar fell sharply against most major opponents in the Asian session on Tuesday, even though the possibility of reduction in the Federal Reserve's bond purchase program loomed near.

Following a raft of upbeat US economic data last week, the traders have been pricing a withdrawal of stimulus measures in the near future. The comments from Federal Reserve officials yesterday supported the view that Fed may start tapering as early as next meeting.

The Federal Reserve may taper their USD85 billion dollar per month asset purchase plan next week in response to better-than-expected jobs growth, said James Bullard, the president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank.

A small taper might recognize labor market improvement while still providing the [Fed] the opportunity to carefully monitor inflation during the first half of 2014," Bullard said.

The risks associated with the Federal Reserve's unprecedented support measures are beginning to outweigh further benefits, according to Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker.

Silver Likely to Decline

At the end of the previous week, the white metal (similarly to gold) moved higher after Federal Reserve Chair Nominee Janet Yellen told that monetary stimulus tools shouldn't be removed too soon.
 
On Monday, two top Fed officials from opposite sides of the policy spectrum, fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve could taper its bond buying program. Their comments pushed the price of silver to slightly above $20. Although yesterday Bernanke said that the Fed will maintain ultra-easy monetary policy for as long as needed, silver extended declines for a second session and hit a fresh three-month low. This, by itself, is a sign of weakness.
 
The price of the white metal is down approximately 33% this year, to some extent on concerns the Fed would begin cutting back its easy-money policy by trimming its $85-billion monthly bond purchasing program.

Precious Metal

QE3 tapering impact is now showing in market as all metals whether precious or semi precious are turned red which will last for another few days

Gold falls as market looks past Federal Reserve statements

Gold prices fell after the Federal reserve left monetary policy unchanged, though markets were expected slightly more dovish language from the U.S. central bank's statement, which gave room for the dollar to rise

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery traded at USD1,344.30 during U.S. afternoon hours, down 0.09%

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday left its key benchmark lending target, the fed funds rate, unchanged at 0.25% and kept its USD85 billion monthly asset-purchasing program in place.

Five-day conclave for small business units

The state micro and small scale enterprises and textiles (MSSET) department is in the process of forging a partnership with IIM Calcutta and The Indus Entrepreneurs (TIE) to kick-start an entrepreneurship movement in the state through a five-day Bengal business conclave.

 With 43,000 registered and 20.8 lakh unregistered micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) that provide employment to 58.5 lakh people, the state ranks second in the country in terms of the number of units. "To clear the roadblocks faced by the units, we are setting up MSME clinics at the conclave," said the state's MSSET secretary Rajiv Sinha

Bengal cabinet okays schemes to protect farmers, MSME sector

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee on Monday said her government has decided to set up mega markets for farmers in all 18 districts of the state at a cost of Rs. 150 crore for the benefit of farmers

The state cabinet also took a decision to set up “Brand Bengal Marketing Corporation” to promote marketing of different products by various enterprises under MSME sector

“With the launch of this corporation, marketing of all the companies under MSME sector will be brought under one roof for a better market linkage benefitting the artisans and workers in the sector,”

New Companies Bill & SEBI Ordinance: Hope,Hype & Horror

The new Companies Bill and the Ordinance to amend the SEBI Act will create a monumental combined impact. 

Some 50 years after independent India enacted the Companies Act, a new Bill is ready to deliver a new and modern statute. Separately, exactly 25 years after India got its first securities regulation, major changes have been brought about in the Securities & Exchange Board of India Act (SEBI), through a Ordinance, empowering it with enormous additional powers.

Obama-Promises-G20-US-Will-Wind-Down-QE3-Gradually

US President Barack Obama reportedly promised delegates at the G20 Summit in St. Petersburg Thursday that quantitative easing in the United States would be wound down gradually, in an apparent attempt to allay emerging markets fears about any sudden shifts in US monetary policy

The United States’ latest round of quantitative easing (QE3), designed to boost the US economy, was launched last year and the Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin winding down the $85 billion monthly bond buying program at its upcoming meeting later in September

Emerging markets, including Russia, are wary that adjustments to QE3 could have serious consequences for their economies, causing significant outflows of investment and depreciating their currencies

The Indian rupee, the Brazilian real and, to a lesser extent, the Russian ruble, have all fallen against the dollar this year as expectations about an end to QE3 have grown

“The majority of countries with developing economies take the position that it is essential to take careful action when winding down this policy”

BRICS to commit $100B to FX fund

The BRICS group of emerging economies will contribute $100 billion to a fighting fund to steady currency markets destabilised by an expected pullback of U.S. monetary stimulus

China, holder of the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, will contribute the bulk of the currency pool. But it will be much smaller than the $240 billion originally envisaged and officials said it would not be functional for some time yet

Cheap dollars that fueled a boom in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa over the past decade have turned tail since Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, warned in May of a 'taper' in the U.S. bond-buying scheme

Gold-rich temples refuse to unlock idle assets to help govt bring down gold import

Some of India's richest temples such as Tirumala Tirupati, Sree Padmanabhaswamy, Shree Krishna temple of Guruvayur, Shree Siddhivinayak and Vaishnodevi are in no mood to part with their treasure to ease the supply crunch and control the outflow of dollars. 

The gold trade is keen to get a slice of a possible 20,000 tonne of gold stashed away in peoples' homes and temples, which at the current gold price it worth around $980 -$1000 billion. 

China calls for regional cooperation over Fed quantitative easing tapering

China and its Asian neighbors should strengthen financial ties to head off risks stemming from any U.S. tapering of its stimulus programme

U.S. #Federal Reserve may start tapering its stimulus program as early as this month. The next Fed policy meeting is set for September 17-18.

"Expectations that developed economies may start to exit quantitative easing policies have stirred financial markets in emerging countries, which requires our join efforts to handle,"

NSEL defaults on third consecutive payout

National Spot Exchange (NSEL) has defaulted on its payment obligations, thereby putting further pressure on the regulators to act expeditiously against the bourse

The exchange has managed to pay only R15.37 crore against R174.72 crore as laid down in the settlement schedule. The first pay-out day on August 20 saw the exchange disburse only R92.13 crore, which was followed by R12.60 crore on August 27. In other words, the exchange, till date, has disbursed only R120 crore against R524.16 crore.

NSEL, however, last week made a separate payment to small investors totalling R177.23 crore by taking a bridge loan from Financial Technologies-India (FTIL)

RBI Sells Dollars Directly To Oil Importers

India's central bank, the RBI, is trying new measures to stabilize the rupee. One of the key sources of pressure on the currency is the nation's need to import fuel. Oil companies have to buy dollars (sell rupees) in order to purchase crude oil in the international markets (including from Iran) to meet the nation's massive energy needs

The Reserve Bank of India will provide dollars directly to state oil companies in its latest attempt to shore up a currency that has slumped to a record low, reflecting the stiff economic challenges facing the country in an uncertain global environment.

The Reserve Bank of India announced late on Wednesday a special window "with immediate effect" to sell dollars through a designated bank to Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, and Bharat Petroleum Corp "until further notice".

NSEL defaulters used dummy accounts: I-T dept

The income tax (I-T) department has found that at least one of the big defaulters on National Spot Exchange Limited (NSEL) was using dummy bank accounts, suggesting the matter may be more than just a simple payments default. The I-T department is investigating whether the amounts invested were declared in the annual returns of the concerned parties.

NSEL officials, when asked whether they were aware of such diversion of funds, told FE they could not comment on the business transactions of its members, and that relevant authorities would take the necessary action in case anything wrong had been done.

Libya Oil Output Decline Threatens Public Sector Pay

Libya’s government may stop paying civil servants by the end of the year as protests at petroleum facilities curtail the nation’s oil output to one-tenth of its capacity, a lawmaker warned today

The North African state is now producing 150,000 barrels a day, after losing 50,000 barrels in daily production yesterday because of strikes by workers and security guards

The loss of Libyan oil production should be the “real price driver,” in crude markets, Vienna-based JBC Energy said in a research note last week. U.S. threats to attack Syria compounded the impact of Libya’s supply disruption in pushing Brent crude to a six-month high of $117.19 a barrel on Aug. 28. Libya holds Africa’s largest proven oil reserves, according to BP Plc’s Statistical Review of World Energy

Jiangxi Copper warns of deepening price pressures

Jiangxi Copper, China's largest copper smelter, warns copper faces more downside price pressure as it posted 52% YoY fall in interim profit due to lower prices of the metal.

Company said that with a new round of release of copper mining capacity globally and China's economic restructuring and slowdown, the copper market faces a change in demand and supply relationship."

Amid expectation that the United States will cut or end its bond buying program and continued economic weakness in Europe and Japan, copper price would be further pressured

Bargain-hunting seen to hold sway over stock market this week

Buying momentum may spill over to this week, but investors are bracing for a tough September ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting this month

Volatility has gripped global financial markets since Fed chairman Ben Bernanke signalled in mid-May that the US central bank may begin winding down its stimulus program if the economy improves. The Fed's $85-billion bond-buying program – the third tranche of what has come to be called “quantitative easing” (QE3) – has been a key driver of equities rallies in the past several months.

India could take up QE tapering issue at G20

India is likely to take up the issue of quantitative easing (QE) by the US at the G20 Leaders' Summit in St Petersburg, Russia next week. Emerging economies, which have seen a flight of capital in the recent weeks on talks of stimulus withdrawal in the US, might together raise the issue at the summit.The Indian currency has taken a beating since the US announced its plans to consider reducing its bond buying

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who assured the nation on Friday on the net gains of globalisation, despite short-term shocks such as rupee depreciation, is likely to raise the issue of capital outflow from emerging market economies due to developments in the US.

INDIA ECONOMY GROWS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED

India's economy grew by 4.4 per cent in the first financial quarter, the weakest performance since 2009, data shows, marking another blow as the government struggle to steady a sliding currency
Analysts blamed slumping investment, stubbornly high inflation and muted export demand from developed nations for the grim performance, which undershot market expectations that the economy would grow around 4.7 per cent
India has been battling to restore investor confidence and boost the level of the rupee which has hit a string of lifetime lows against the dollar

S&P 500 Falls as Investors Weigh U.S. Response to Syria

U.S. stocks fell, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index capping its worst monthly drop since May 2012, as investors weighed the prospects for American military action in Syria and disappointing data on consumer spending
The S&P 500 dropped 0.3 percent to 1,632.97 at 4 p.m. in New York, extending its decline in August to 3.1 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 30.64 points, or 0.2 percent, to 14,810.31. U.S. exchanges are closed Sept. 2 for the Labor Day holiday

Govt considering bullion bank to mobilise idle gold

Indians estimated to be holding 20-25,000 tons of gold. Every year 800-900 tons of gold added to this
The government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) are considering buying idle gold from investors and routing it to jewellersto replace imports. To facilitate this, a bullion bank or Bullion Corporation of India (BCI) is proposed to be set up

Mutual funds: Investors must invest with 12-18 months timeline to beat volatility

In the face of increasing volatility in the debt market, industry leaders have advised investors to keep a 12-18 months horizon in short-term and long-term debt funds for stable returns

Forex reserves down at $277.722 billion as on August 23: RBI

Foreign exchange reserves were down to $277.722 billion as of Aug. 23, compared with $278.807 billion in the earlier week, the Reserve Bank of India

Changes in foreign currency assets, expressed in dollar terms, include the effect of appreciation or depreciation of other currencies held in its reserves

South Africa's waning gold industry braces for more strikes

South African gold miners plan to strike for higher pay from Tuesday, inflicting more damage on an industry that has produced a third of the bullion ever pulled from the earth but is now in rapid decline
The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), which represents almost two thirds of the country's 120,000 goldmine workers, served the mining firms notice of the strike starting from Tuesday's night shift

AGRI WRAP-Indian jeera, chana fall; guar jumps 4 pct

Indian jeera, or cumin seed, futures fell on Thursday as plentiful rains in leading cultivating states raise prospects of better sowing in the winter

Indian guar seed futures rose as rains in Rajasthan, the country's top producing state, raised concerns over the yield of the crop, while arrivals from new season supplies are also likely to be pushed back

Indian chana, or chickpea, futures fell on prospects of better sowing while higher area under summer-sown pulses and favourable weather also weighed on sentiment

Dynacor Increases Its 2013 Gold Production Guidance to 71,000 oz

Dynacor Gold Mines Inc. (TSX:DNG) (Dynacor or the Company), a company with gold and silver ore processing operations and exploration projects in Peru, is pleased to announce that it has increased its 2013 gold production guidance to 71,000 ounces up from 66,000 ounces an increase of 7.5%

Indian banks borrow 659.68 bln rupees from the cbank under MSF

Indian banks borrowed 659.68 billion rupees ($9.84 billion) from the Reserve Bank of India's marginal standing facility (MSF) window on Aug. 29, slightly lower than the 695.85 billion rupees on Aug. 28

India & Indonesia suffers most

The rupee and the rupiah are seen as especially vulnerable to an anticipated reduction in the Fed’s quantitative easing, The Fed is expected to start scaling back its bond-buying programme next month

Rating agency "Moody"

Rating againcy #Moody warns the Govt. over Food security bill that this measure will weak Govt. finances

Crude Oil to go up

Crude oil can go up as traders fear that United states would launch air strike against #Syria that could last for days

गिरता रुपैया

#रुपैया का गिरना विश्व जगत में भारत की गिरती साख का प्रतीक है जिसके लिए #UPA सरकार और उसकी नीतियाँ जिम्मेदार है  

NSEL Default continue

#NSEL declared ten more entitles as defaulters which now tally total number of defaulters to 19

All time high for Gold

Gold trading at all time high, set to test the levels of 35ooo/- INR

Sugar Update

Spread between Sugar (September & October) is close to 25/- INR

Sugar Spread

Spread between Sugar (September & October) is 40 (+) INR which could easily go down to test 25 (+) INR levels coz of Bumper crop in Brazil 

Investments

Managing funds through Agri market is much easier & reliable as compared to other markets

Agri News

Govt is planning to hike imprt dty on sugar frm 10% to 15% vch mean rising dollar & high imprt dty wil put break on sugar price droppng down

Gold Update

• Gold is weak fundamentally but recent hike in import duty is inviting gold smuggling soon we will see unidirectional trend in Gold

Gold to trade down

Gold is certainly set to test the levels of 25000/- INR in near future

Disclaimer

Gold to trade down

Gold is certainly set to test the levels of 25000/- INR in near future

Disclaimer